Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hércules vs Mérida AD — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Hércules
Hércules
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mérida AD
Mérida AD
4/13/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 32Estadio José Rico Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Hércules51%
×Draw27%
Mérida AD22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hércules
1.45
Mérida AD
0.85

Hércules creates 71% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Hércules
1.45
Mérida AD
0.87

allows per match

Hércules
0.84
Mérida AD
1.45

finishing

Hércules+0.00on par
Mérida AD+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hércules ↓

Mérida AD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hércules or draw
78%
Hércules or Mérida AD
73%
Draw or Mérida AD
49%

Winning margin

Hércules wins by 2+
26%
Mérida AD wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hércules 1+ goals
77%
Hércules 2+ goals
42%
Hércules 3+ goals
18%
Mérida AD 1+ goals
57%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
21%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Hércules (draw refunded)
70%
Mérida AD (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hércules at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.84 · 38 matches

Mérida AD away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hércules attack 1.45 + Mérida AD defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.45

Mérida AD attack 0.87 + Hércules defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hércules scores more
51%
level
27%
Mérida AD scores more
22%

Hércules at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hércules will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hércules vs Mérida AD

Hércules and Mérida AD drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio José Rico Pérez in Alicante.