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Hercules vs Kampong — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Hercules
Hercules
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Kampong
Kampong
1/14/2024Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 18Sportpark Voordorp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Hercules56%
×Draw20%
Kampong24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hercules
2.29
Kampong
1.44

Hercules creates 59% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Hercules
2.04
Kampong
1.59

allows per match

Hercules
1.29
Kampong
2.53

finishing

Hercules+0.00on par
Kampong+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hercules ↓

Kampong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Hercules or draw
76%
Hercules or Kampong
80%
Draw or Kampong
44%

Winning margin

Hercules wins by 2+
35%
Kampong wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hercules 1+ goals
90%
Hercules 2+ goals
66%
Hercules 3+ goals
40%
Kampong 1+ goals
76%
Kampong 2+ goals
42%
Kampong 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hercules (draw refunded)
70%
Kampong (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hercules at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

Kampong away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hercules attack 2.04 + Kampong defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.29

Kampong attack 1.59 + Hercules defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hercules scores more
56%
level
20%
Kampong scores more
24%

Hercules at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hercules will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Hercules 2–2 Kampong

Hercules and Kampong drew 2-2 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Voordorp in Utrecht.