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Hércules vs Juventud Torremolinos — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Hércules
Hércules
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Juventud Torremolinos
Juventud Torremolinos
12/6/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Estadio José Rico Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hércules50%
×Draw26%
Juventud Torremolinos24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hércules
1.52
Juventud Torremolinos
0.95

Hércules creates 60% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Hércules
1.45
Juventud Torremolinos
1.05

allows per match

Hércules
0.84
Juventud Torremolinos
1.58

finishing

Hércules+0.00on par
Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hércules ↓

Juventud Torremolinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hércules or draw
76%
Hércules or Juventud Torremolinos
74%
Draw or Juventud Torremolinos
50%

Winning margin

Hércules wins by 2+
26%
Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hércules 1+ goals
78%
Hércules 2+ goals
45%
Hércules 3+ goals
20%
Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals
61%
Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals
25%
Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Hércules (draw refunded)
68%
Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hércules at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.84 · 38 matches

Juventud Torremolinos away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hércules attack 1.45 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.52

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.05 + Hércules defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hércules scores more
50%
level
26%
Juventud Torremolinos scores more
24%

Hércules at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hércules will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hércules 2 – 1 Juventud Torremolinos

Hércules beat Juventud Torremolinos 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 6, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio José Rico Pérez in Alicante.