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Hércules vs Intercity — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Hércules
Hércules
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Intercity
Intercity
9/7/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Estadio José Rico Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Hércules49%
×Draw27%
Intercity24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hércules
1.40
Intercity
0.88

Hércules creates 59% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

creates per match

Hércules
1.45
Intercity
0.91

allows per match

Hércules
0.84
Intercity
1.35

finishing

Hércules+0.00on par
Intercity+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hércules ↓

Intercity →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hércules or draw
76%
Hércules or Intercity
73%
Draw or Intercity
51%

Winning margin

Hércules wins by 2+
24%
Intercity wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hércules 1+ goals
75%
Hércules 2+ goals
41%
Hércules 3+ goals
17%
Intercity 1+ goals
59%
Intercity 2+ goals
22%
Intercity 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Hércules (draw refunded)
67%
Intercity (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hércules at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.84 · 38 matches

Intercity away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.35 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hércules attack 1.45 + Intercity defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.40

Intercity attack 0.91 + Hércules defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hércules scores more
49%
level
27%
Intercity scores more
24%

Hércules at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hércules will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Hércules 1–1 Intercity

Hércules and Intercity drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio José Rico Pérez in Alicante.