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Hércules vs Ibiza — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Hércules
Hércules
Preview
16:00
Ibiza
Ibiza
12/13/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16
42%
Hércules
model favours
42%29%28%

Ibiza raise their game against the top half — 45% wins vs the upper half, only 43% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Hércules42%
×Draw29%
Ibiza28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hércules
1.21
Ibiza
0.93

Hércules creates 30% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

creates per match

Hércules
1.45
Ibiza
1.02

allows per match

Hércules
0.84
Ibiza
0.98

finishing

Hércules+0.00on par
Ibiza+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hércules ↓

Ibiza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Hércules or draw
72%
Hércules or Ibiza
71%
Draw or Ibiza
58%

Winning margin

Hércules wins by 2+
19%
Ibiza wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hércules 1+ goals
70%
Hércules 2+ goals
34%
Hércules 3+ goals
12%
Ibiza 1+ goals
61%
Ibiza 2+ goals
24%
Ibiza 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Hércules (draw refunded)
60%
Ibiza (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hércules at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.84 · 38 matches

Ibiza away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.98 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hércules attack 1.45 + Ibiza defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.21

Ibiza attack 1.02 + Hércules defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hércules scores more
42%
level
29%
Ibiza scores more
28%

Hércules at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hércules will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 4 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Hércules
DWWLW
Ibiza
LWLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hércules vs Ibiza — Match Preview

Hércules face Ibiza on December 13, 2026 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.