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Hércules vs Fuenlabrada — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Hércules
Hércules
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fuenlabrada
Fuenlabrada
2/16/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 24Estadio José Rico Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hércules50%
×Draw26%
Fuenlabrada24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hércules
1.52
Fuenlabrada
0.98

Hércules creates 55% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Hércules
1.45
Fuenlabrada
1.11

allows per match

Hércules
0.84
Fuenlabrada
1.58

finishing

Hércules+0.00on par
Fuenlabrada+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hércules ↓

Fuenlabrada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hércules or draw
76%
Hércules or Fuenlabrada
74%
Draw or Fuenlabrada
50%

Winning margin

Hércules wins by 2+
25%
Fuenlabrada wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hércules 1+ goals
78%
Hércules 2+ goals
45%
Hércules 3+ goals
20%
Fuenlabrada 1+ goals
62%
Fuenlabrada 2+ goals
26%
Fuenlabrada 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hércules (draw refunded)
67%
Fuenlabrada (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hércules at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.84 · 38 matches

Fuenlabrada away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hércules attack 1.45 + Fuenlabrada defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.52

Fuenlabrada attack 1.11 + Hércules defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hércules scores more
50%
level
26%
Fuenlabrada scores more
24%

Hércules at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hércules will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Hércules 1–0 Fuenlabrada

Hércules beat Fuenlabrada 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio José Rico Pérez in Alicante.