Hercules 1–2 Eemdijk: Result & Stats

Hercules

FT

1 – 2

Eemdijk

10/4/2025

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Group A - 8Sportpark Voordorp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hercules48%

×Draw22%

Eemdijk29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HerculesExpected goals in this matchEemdijk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.43

Hercules

1.90

Eemdijk

1.43

Hercules creates 33% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

2.04

creates per match

1.57

1.29

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Hercules

2.04

Eemdijk

1.57

allows per match

Hercules

1.29

Eemdijk

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hercules+0.00on par

Eemdijk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hercules ↓

Eemdijk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Hercules or draw

71%

Hercules or Eemdijk

78%

Draw or Eemdijk

52%

Winning margin

Hercules wins by 2+

27%

Eemdijk wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hercules 1+ goals

85%

Hercules 2+ goals

56%

Hercules 3+ goals

29%

Eemdijk 1+ goals

76%

Eemdijk 2+ goals

42%

Eemdijk 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Hercules (draw refunded)

62%

Eemdijk (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hercules at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

Eemdijk away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hercules attack 2.04 + Eemdijk defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.90

Eemdijk attack 1.57 + Hercules defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hercules scores more

48%

level

22%

Eemdijk scores more

29%

Hercules at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hercules will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff