Hercules 0–2 DVS 33 Ermelo: Result & Stats

Hercules

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

DVS 33 Ermelo

9/20/2025

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Group A - 6Sportpark Voordorp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hercules46%

×Draw23%

DVS 33 Ermelo31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HerculesExpected goals in this matchDVS 33 Ermelo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.42

Hercules

1.77

DVS 33 Ermelo

1.42

Hercules creates 25% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 100 away

2.04

creates per match

1.54

1.29

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Hercules

2.04

DVS 33 Ermelo

1.54

allows per match

Hercules

1.29

DVS 33 Ermelo

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hercules+0.00on par

DVS 33 Ermelo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hercules ↓

DVS 33 Ermelo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Hercules or draw

69%

Hercules or DVS 33 Ermelo

77%

Draw or DVS 33 Ermelo

54%

Winning margin

Hercules wins by 2+

25%

DVS 33 Ermelo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hercules 1+ goals

83%

Hercules 2+ goals

53%

Hercules 3+ goals

26%

DVS 33 Ermelo 1+ goals

76%

DVS 33 Ermelo 2+ goals

41%

DVS 33 Ermelo 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Hercules (draw refunded)

60%

DVS 33 Ermelo (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hercules at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

DVS 33 Ermelo away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.51 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hercules attack 2.04 + DVS 33 Ermelo defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.77

DVS 33 Ermelo attack 1.54 + Hercules defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hercules scores more

46%

level

23%

DVS 33 Ermelo scores more

31%

Hercules at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hercules will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff