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Hercules vs Ajax Amateurs — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Hercules
Hercules
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ajax Amateurs
Ajax Amateurs
3/16/2025Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 26Sportpark Voordorp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Hercules56%
×Draw21%
Ajax Amateurs22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hercules
2.04
Ajax Amateurs
1.21

Hercules creates 69% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 49 away

creates per match

Hercules
2.04
Ajax Amateurs
1.12

allows per match

Hercules
1.29
Ajax Amateurs
2.04

finishing

Hercules+0.00on par
Ajax Amateurs+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hercules ↓

Ajax Amateurs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Hercules or draw
78%
Hercules or Ajax Amateurs
79%
Draw or Ajax Amateurs
44%

Winning margin

Hercules wins by 2+
34%
Ajax Amateurs wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hercules 1+ goals
87%
Hercules 2+ goals
60%
Hercules 3+ goals
33%
Ajax Amateurs 1+ goals
70%
Ajax Amateurs 2+ goals
34%
Ajax Amateurs 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hercules (draw refunded)
72%
Ajax Amateurs (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hercules at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

Ajax Amateurs away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hercules attack 2.04 + Ajax Amateurs defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.04

Ajax Amateurs attack 1.12 + Hercules defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hercules scores more
56%
level
21%
Ajax Amateurs scores more
22%

Hercules at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hercules will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Hercules 0–1 Ajax Amateurs

Ajax Amateurs beat Hercules 1-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Voordorp in Utrecht.