Hércules 2–0 AD Ceuta FC: Result & Stats

Hércules

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

AD Ceuta FC

8/24/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Estadio José Rico Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Hércules46%

×Draw28%

AD Ceuta FC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HérculesExpected goals in this matchAD Ceuta FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.92

Hércules

1.33

AD Ceuta FC

0.92

Hércules creates 45% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

1.45

creates per match

1.00

0.84

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Hércules

1.45

AD Ceuta FC

1.00

allows per match

Hércules

0.84

AD Ceuta FC

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hércules+0.00on par

AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hércules ↓

AD Ceuta FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Hércules or draw

74%

Hércules or AD Ceuta FC

72%

Draw or AD Ceuta FC

54%

Winning margin

Hércules wins by 2+

22%

AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Hércules 1+ goals

74%

Hércules 2+ goals

38%

Hércules 3+ goals

15%

AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals

60%

AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals

23%

AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Hércules (draw refunded)

64%

AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hércules at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.84 · 38 matches

AD Ceuta FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.21 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hércules attack 1.45 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.33

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.00 + Hércules defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hércules scores more

46%

level

28%

AD Ceuta FC scores more

26%

Hércules at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hércules will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff