Hércules II 0–4 Villarreal III: Result & Stats

Hércules II

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Villarreal III

4/18/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 31Ciudad Deportiva de Alicante F-11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Hércules II35%

×Draw28%

Villarreal III37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hércules IIExpected goals in this matchVillarreal III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.22

Hércules II

1.18

Villarreal III

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 112 away

1.12

creates per match

1.38

1.06

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Hércules II

1.12

Villarreal III

1.38

allows per match

Hércules II

1.06

Villarreal III

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hércules II+0.00on par

Villarreal III+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hércules II ↓

Villarreal III →

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Hércules II or draw

63%

Hércules II or Villarreal III

72%

Draw or Villarreal III

65%

Winning margin

Hércules II wins by 2+

15%

Villarreal III wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Hércules II 1+ goals

69%

Hércules II 2+ goals

33%

Hércules II 3+ goals

12%

Villarreal III 1+ goals

70%

Villarreal III 2+ goals

34%

Villarreal III 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hércules II (draw refunded)

49%

Villarreal III (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hércules II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.06 · 78 matches

Villarreal III away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hércules II attack 1.12 + Villarreal III defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Villarreal III attack 1.38 + Hércules II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hércules II scores more

35%

level

28%

Villarreal III scores more

37%

Villarreal III at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Villarreal III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hércules II vs Villarreal III

Villarreal III beat Hércules II 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on April 18, 2026.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Alicante F-11 in Alicante.

Hércules II vs Villarreal III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hércules II vs Villarreal III