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Hércules II vs Eldense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Hércules II
Hércules II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Eldense
Eldense
9/14/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 4Campo de Fútbol El Campello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Hércules II35%
×Draw29%
Eldense36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hércules II
1.12
Eldense
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 26 away

creates per match

Hércules II
1.12
Eldense
1.19

allows per match

Hércules II
1.06
Eldense
1.12

finishing

Hércules II+0.00on par
Eldense+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hércules II ↓

Eldense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hércules II or draw
64%
Hércules II or Eldense
71%
Draw or Eldense
65%

Winning margin

Hércules II wins by 2+
14%
Eldense wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hércules II 1+ goals
67%
Hércules II 2+ goals
31%
Hércules II 3+ goals
10%
Eldense 1+ goals
68%
Eldense 2+ goals
31%
Eldense 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hércules II (draw refunded)
50%
Eldense (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hércules II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.06 · 78 matches

Eldense away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hércules II attack 1.12 + Eldense defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Eldense attack 1.19 + Hércules II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Hércules II scores more
35%
level
29%
Eldense scores more
36%

Eldense at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Eldense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Hércules II 3–1 Eldense

Hércules II beat Eldense 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol El Campello in El Campello.