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Hércules II vs Benigànim — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Hércules II
Hércules II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Benigànim
Benigànim
3/7/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 28Campo de Fútbol Divina Pastora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Hércules II61%
×Draw22%
Benigànim17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hércules II
1.89
Benigànim
0.88

Hércules II creates 115% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 44 away

creates per match

Hércules II
1.12
Benigànim
0.70

allows per match

Hércules II
1.06
Benigànim
2.66

finishing

Hércules II+0.00on par
Benigànim+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hércules II ↓

Benigànim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Hércules II or draw
83%
Hércules II or Benigànim
78%
Draw or Benigànim
39%

Winning margin

Hércules II wins by 2+
36%
Benigànim wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Hércules II 1+ goals
85%
Hércules II 2+ goals
56%
Hércules II 3+ goals
29%
Benigànim 1+ goals
59%
Benigànim 2+ goals
22%
Benigànim 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Hércules II (draw refunded)
78%
Benigànim (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hércules II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.06 · 78 matches

Benigànim away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.66 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hércules II attack 1.12 + Benigànim defence 2.66 → ÷2 → 1.89

Benigànim attack 0.70 + Hércules II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Hércules II scores more
61%
level
22%
Benigànim scores more
17%

Hércules II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Hércules II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Hércules II 2–0 Benigànim

Hércules II beat Benigànim 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Divina Pastora in Alacant.