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Hercílio Luz vs Concórdia — Serie D 2018

Hercílio Luz
Hercílio Luz
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Concórdia
Concórdia
5/11/2024Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Aníbal Torres Costa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Hercílio Luz50%
×Draw31%
Concórdia19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hercílio Luz
1.20
Concórdia
0.62

Hercílio Luz creates 94% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

creates per match

Hercílio Luz
1.32
Concórdia
0.50

allows per match

Hercílio Luz
0.74
Concórdia
1.07

finishing

Hercílio Luz+0.00on par
Concórdia+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hercílio Luz ↓

Concórdia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Hercílio Luz or draw
81%
Hercílio Luz or Concórdia
69%
Draw or Concórdia
50%

Winning margin

Hercílio Luz wins by 2+
23%
Concórdia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Hercílio Luz 1+ goals
70%
Hercílio Luz 2+ goals
34%
Hercílio Luz 3+ goals
12%
Concórdia 1+ goals
46%
Concórdia 2+ goals
13%
Concórdia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Hercílio Luz (draw refunded)
72%
Concórdia (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hercílio Luz at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Concórdia away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hercílio Luz attack 1.32 + Concórdia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Concórdia attack 0.50 + Hercílio Luz defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hercílio Luz scores more
50%
level
31%
Concórdia scores more
19%

Hercílio Luz at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hercílio Luz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hercílio Luz vs Concórdia

Hercílio Luz and Concórdia drew 1-1 in Serie D on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Aníbal Torres Costa in Tubarão, Santa Catarina.