Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hercílio Luz vs Caravaggio — Catarinense - 2 2026

Hercílio Luz
Hercílio Luz
Preview
23:00
Caravaggio
Caravaggio
7/22/2026Catarinense - 2Catarinense - 2 · Round 17
Big match
55%
Hercílio Luz
model favours
55%22%22%

Hercílio Luz have won 10 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Hercílio Luz55%
×Draw22%
Caravaggio22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hercílio Luz
1.90
Caravaggio
1.13

Hercílio Luz creates 68% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 19 away

creates per match

Hercílio Luz
2.75
Caravaggio
1.63

allows per match

Hercílio Luz
0.63
Caravaggio
1.05

finishing

Hercílio Luz+0.00on par
Caravaggio+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hercílio Luz ↓

Caravaggio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Hercílio Luz or draw
78%
Hercílio Luz or Caravaggio
78%
Draw or Caravaggio
45%

Winning margin

Hercílio Luz wins by 2+
32%
Caravaggio wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hercílio Luz 1+ goals
85%
Hercílio Luz 2+ goals
56%
Hercílio Luz 3+ goals
29%
Caravaggio 1+ goals
68%
Caravaggio 2+ goals
31%
Caravaggio 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hercílio Luz (draw refunded)
71%
Caravaggio (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hercílio Luz at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Caravaggio away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hercílio Luz attack 2.75 + Caravaggio defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.90

Caravaggio attack 1.63 + Hercílio Luz defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Hercílio Luz scores more
55%
level
22%
Caravaggio scores more
22%

Hercílio Luz at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Hercílio Luz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 92% of Caravaggio’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Caravaggio have scored in 12 games running
  • Hercílio Luz have scored in 10 games running
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Hercílio Luz 1 vs Caravaggio 4
  • 44% of Hercílio Luz’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Both teams score in only 33% of Hercílio Luz’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Luz
WWWWW
Caravaggio
DWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hercílio Luz vs Caravaggio — Match Preview

Hercílio Luz face Caravaggio on July 22, 2026 in this Catarinense - 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.