Caravaggio 2–2 Hercílio Luz: Result & Stats

Caravaggio

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Hercílio Luz

Eduardo Junior 68'

Evaristo 3'

Alan James 60', 47'

5/31/2026

Catarinense - 2 · Round 8Estadio da Montanha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Caravaggio38%

×Draw27%

Hercílio Luz35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CaravaggioExpected goals in this matchHercílio Luz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.25

Caravaggio

1.30

Hercílio Luz

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 8 away

2.11

creates per match

1.38

1.11

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Caravaggio

2.11

Hercílio Luz

1.38

allows per match

Caravaggio

1.11

Hercílio Luz

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caravaggio+0.00on par

Hercílio Luz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caravaggio ↓

Hercílio Luz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Caravaggio or draw

65%

Caravaggio or Hercílio Luz

73%

Draw or Hercílio Luz

62%

Winning margin

Caravaggio wins by 2+

17%

Hercílio Luz wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Caravaggio 1+ goals

73%

Caravaggio 2+ goals

37%

Caravaggio 3+ goals

14%

Hercílio Luz 1+ goals

71%

Hercílio Luz 2+ goals

36%

Hercílio Luz 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Caravaggio (draw refunded)

52%

Hercílio Luz (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caravaggio at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Hercílio Luz away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caravaggio attack 2.11 + Hercílio Luz defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.30

Hercílio Luz attack 1.38 + Caravaggio defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Caravaggio scores more

38%

level

27%

Hercílio Luz scores more

35%

Caravaggio at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Caravaggio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

47'

60'

68'

90+5'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff