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Hercílio Luz U20 vs Brusque U20 — Catarinense U20 2024

Hercílio Luz U20
Hercílio Luz U20
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Brusque U20
Brusque U20
7/10/2024Catarinense U20Catarinense U20 · 1st Phase - 20Estádio Aníbal Torres Costa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Hercílio Luz U2065%
×Draw18%
Brusque U2017%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hercílio Luz U20
2.41
Brusque U20
1.14

Hercílio Luz U20 creates 111% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 26 away

creates per match

Hercílio Luz U20
2.27
Brusque U20
0.92

allows per match

Hercílio Luz U20
1.36
Brusque U20
2.54

finishing

Hercílio Luz U20+0.00on par
Brusque U20+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hercílio Luz U20 ↓

Brusque U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Hercílio Luz U20 or draw
83%
Hercílio Luz U20 or Brusque U20
82%
Draw or Brusque U20
35%

Winning margin

Hercílio Luz U20 wins by 2+
43%
Brusque U20 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Hercílio Luz U20 1+ goals
91%
Hercílio Luz U20 2+ goals
69%
Hercílio Luz U20 3+ goals
43%
Brusque U20 1+ goals
68%
Brusque U20 2+ goals
32%
Brusque U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hercílio Luz U20 (draw refunded)
80%
Brusque U20 (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hercílio Luz U20 at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Brusque U20 away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hercílio Luz U20 attack 2.27 + Brusque U20 defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.41

Brusque U20 attack 0.92 + Hercílio Luz U20 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Hercílio Luz U20 scores more
65%
level
18%
Brusque U20 scores more
17%

Hercílio Luz U20 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Hercílio Luz U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hercílio Luz U20 vs Brusque U20

Hercílio Luz U20 beat Brusque U20 3-1 in Catarinense U20 on July 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Aníbal Torres Costa in Tubarão, Santa Catarina.