Hercílio Luz U20 2–1 Barra SC U20: Result & Stats

Hercílio Luz U20

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Barra SC U20

4/27/2024

Catarinense U20 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Municipal Lauro Koch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Hercílio Luz U2037%

×Draw24%

Barra SC U2039%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hercílio Luz U20Expected goals in this matchBarra SC U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.60

Hercílio Luz U20

1.54

Barra SC U20

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 27 away

2.27

creates per match

1.85

1.36

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Hercílio Luz U20

2.27

Barra SC U20

1.85

allows per match

Hercílio Luz U20

1.36

Barra SC U20

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hercílio Luz U20+0.00on par

Barra SC U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hercílio Luz U20 ↓

Barra SC U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Hercílio Luz U20 or draw

61%

Hercílio Luz U20 or Barra SC U20

76%

Draw or Barra SC U20

63%

Winning margin

Hercílio Luz U20 wins by 2+

18%

Barra SC U20 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Hercílio Luz U20 1+ goals

79%

Hercílio Luz U20 2+ goals

45%

Hercílio Luz U20 3+ goals

20%

Barra SC U20 1+ goals

80%

Barra SC U20 2+ goals

47%

Barra SC U20 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Hercílio Luz U20 (draw refunded)

48%

Barra SC U20 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hercílio Luz U20 at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Barra SC U20 away — creates 1.85, concedes 0.81 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hercílio Luz U20 attack 2.27 + Barra SC U20 defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.54

Barra SC U20 attack 1.85 + Hercílio Luz U20 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hercílio Luz U20 scores more

37%

level

24%

Barra SC U20 scores more

39%

Barra SC U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Barra SC U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff