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Herbania vs UD San Fernando — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Herbania
Herbania
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
UD San Fernando
UD San Fernando
10/4/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 5Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Herbania34%
×Draw28%
UD San Fernando38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Herbania
1.12
UD San Fernando
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 76 away

creates per match

Herbania
1.27
UD San Fernando
1.26

allows per match

Herbania
1.16
UD San Fernando
0.97

finishing

Herbania+0.00on par
UD San Fernando+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Herbania ↓

UD San Fernando →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Herbania or draw
62%
Herbania or UD San Fernando
72%
Draw or UD San Fernando
66%

Winning margin

Herbania wins by 2+
14%
UD San Fernando wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Herbania 1+ goals
67%
Herbania 2+ goals
31%
Herbania 3+ goals
10%
UD San Fernando 1+ goals
70%
UD San Fernando 2+ goals
34%
UD San Fernando 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Herbania (draw refunded)
47%
UD San Fernando (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Herbania at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

UD San Fernando away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Herbania attack 1.27 + UD San Fernando defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.12

UD San Fernando attack 1.26 + Herbania defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Herbania scores more
34%
level
28%
UD San Fernando scores more
38%

UD San Fernando at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "UD San Fernando will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Herbania vs UD San Fernando

Herbania and UD San Fernando drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos in Puerto Rosario.