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Herbania vs Teror — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Herbania
Herbania
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Teror
Teror
11/4/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 9Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Herbania57%
×Draw23%
Teror20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Herbania
1.81
Teror
0.99

Herbania creates 83% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 17 away

creates per match

Herbania
1.27
Teror
0.82

allows per match

Herbania
1.16
Teror
2.35

finishing

Herbania+0.00on par
Teror+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Herbania ↓

Teror →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Herbania or draw
80%
Herbania or Teror
77%
Draw or Teror
43%

Winning margin

Herbania wins by 2+
32%
Teror wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Herbania 1+ goals
84%
Herbania 2+ goals
54%
Herbania 3+ goals
27%
Teror 1+ goals
63%
Teror 2+ goals
26%
Teror 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Herbania (draw refunded)
73%
Teror (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Herbania at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

Teror away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Herbania attack 1.27 + Teror defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.81

Teror attack 0.82 + Herbania defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Herbania scores more
57%
level
23%
Teror scores more
20%

Herbania at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Herbania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Herbania 3–1 Teror

Herbania beat Teror 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos in Puerto Rosario.