Herbania 3–1 San Miguel: Result & Stats

Herbania

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

San Miguel

5/4/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 33Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Herbania51%

×Draw26%

San Miguel22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HerbaniaExpected goals in this matchSan Miguel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.88

Herbania

1.49

San Miguel

0.88

Herbania creates 69% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 17 away

1.27

creates per match

0.59

1.16

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Herbania

1.27

San Miguel

0.59

allows per match

Herbania

1.16

San Miguel

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Herbania+0.00on par

San Miguel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Herbania ↓

San Miguel →

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Herbania or draw

78%

Herbania or San Miguel

74%

Draw or San Miguel

49%

Winning margin

Herbania wins by 2+

26%

San Miguel wins by 2+

Team goals

Herbania 1+ goals

77%

Herbania 2+ goals

44%

Herbania 3+ goals

19%

San Miguel 1+ goals

59%

San Miguel 2+ goals

22%

San Miguel 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Herbania (draw refunded)

70%

San Miguel (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Herbania at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

San Miguel away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Herbania attack 1.27 + San Miguel defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.49

San Miguel attack 0.59 + Herbania defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Herbania scores more

51%

level

26%

San Miguel scores more

22%

Herbania at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Herbania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff