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Herbania vs Real Unión de Tenerife — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Herbania
Herbania
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Real Unión de Tenerife
Real Unión de Tenerife
A. Morales 39'
4/25/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 32Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Herbania43%
×Draw30%
Real Unión de Tenerife27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Herbania
1.20
Real Unión de Tenerife
0.88

Herbania creates 36% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 17 away

creates per match

Herbania
1.27
Real Unión de Tenerife
0.59

allows per match

Herbania
1.16
Real Unión de Tenerife
1.12

finishing

Herbania+0.00on par
Real Unión de Tenerife+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Herbania ↓

Real Unión de Tenerife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Herbania or draw
73%
Herbania or Real Unión de Tenerife
70%
Draw or Real Unión de Tenerife
57%

Winning margin

Herbania wins by 2+
19%
Real Unión de Tenerife wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Herbania 1+ goals
70%
Herbania 2+ goals
34%
Herbania 3+ goals
12%
Real Unión de Tenerife 1+ goals
59%
Real Unión de Tenerife 2+ goals
22%
Real Unión de Tenerife 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Herbania (draw refunded)
62%
Real Unión de Tenerife (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Herbania at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

Real Unión de Tenerife away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Herbania attack 1.27 + Real Unión de Tenerife defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.20

Real Unión de Tenerife attack 0.59 + Herbania defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Herbania scores more
43%
level
30%
Real Unión de Tenerife scores more
27%

Herbania at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Herbania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
A. Morales

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Herbania 1 – 0 Real Unión de Tenerife

Herbania beat Real Unión de Tenerife 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 25, 2026.

Goals: A. Morales (39').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos in Puerto Rosario.