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Herbania vs Ibarra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Herbania
Herbania
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ibarra
Ibarra
12/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 15Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Herbania52%
×Draw25%
Ibarra24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Herbania
1.63
Ibarra
1.02

Herbania creates 60% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 77 away

creates per match

Herbania
1.27
Ibarra
0.88

allows per match

Herbania
1.16
Ibarra
1.99

finishing

Herbania+0.00on par
Ibarra+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Herbania ↓

Ibarra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Herbania or draw
76%
Herbania or Ibarra
75%
Draw or Ibarra
48%

Winning margin

Herbania wins by 2+
27%
Ibarra wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Herbania 1+ goals
80%
Herbania 2+ goals
48%
Herbania 3+ goals
22%
Ibarra 1+ goals
64%
Ibarra 2+ goals
27%
Ibarra 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Herbania (draw refunded)
68%
Ibarra (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Herbania at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

Ibarra away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.99 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Herbania attack 1.27 + Ibarra defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.63

Ibarra attack 0.88 + Herbania defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Herbania scores more
52%
level
25%
Ibarra scores more
24%

Herbania at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Herbania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Herbania 2–0 Ibarra

Herbania beat Ibarra 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on December 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos in Puerto Rosario.