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Herbania vs Atlético Victoria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Herbania
Herbania
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Victoria
Atlético Victoria
4/13/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 29Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Herbania53%
×Draw25%
Atlético Victoria22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Herbania
1.62
Atlético Victoria
0.95

Herbania creates 71% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 31 away

creates per match

Herbania
1.27
Atlético Victoria
0.74

allows per match

Herbania
1.16
Atlético Victoria
1.97

finishing

Herbania+0.00on par
Atlético Victoria+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Herbania ↓

Atlético Victoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Herbania or draw
78%
Herbania or Atlético Victoria
75%
Draw or Atlético Victoria
47%

Winning margin

Herbania wins by 2+
28%
Atlético Victoria wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Herbania 1+ goals
80%
Herbania 2+ goals
48%
Herbania 3+ goals
22%
Atlético Victoria 1+ goals
61%
Atlético Victoria 2+ goals
25%
Atlético Victoria 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Herbania (draw refunded)
71%
Atlético Victoria (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Herbania at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

Atlético Victoria away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.97 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Herbania attack 1.27 + Atlético Victoria defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.62

Atlético Victoria attack 0.74 + Herbania defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Herbania scores more
53%
level
25%
Atlético Victoria scores more
22%

Herbania at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Herbania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Herbania vs Atlético Victoria

Herbania beat Atlético Victoria 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos in Puerto Rosario.