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Heracles vs Waalwijk — Eredivisie 2018

Heracles
Heracles
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Waalwijk
Waalwijk
5/5/2024EredivisieEredivisie · Round 32Erve Asito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Heracles51%
×Draw22%
Waalwijk26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heracles
1.93
Waalwijk
1.33

Heracles creates 45% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 98 away

creates per match

Heracles
1.73
Waalwijk
1.04

allows per match

Heracles
1.62
Waalwijk
2.12

finishing

Heracles+0.00on par
Waalwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heracles ↓

Waalwijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Heracles or draw
74%
Heracles or Waalwijk
78%
Draw or Waalwijk
49%

Winning margin

Heracles wins by 2+
29%
Waalwijk wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Heracles 1+ goals
85%
Heracles 2+ goals
57%
Heracles 3+ goals
30%
Waalwijk 1+ goals
74%
Waalwijk 2+ goals
38%
Waalwijk 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Heracles (draw refunded)
66%
Waalwijk (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heracles at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.62 · 117 matches

Waalwijk away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.12 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heracles attack 1.73 + Waalwijk defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.93

Waalwijk attack 1.04 + Heracles defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Heracles scores more
51%
level
22%
Waalwijk scores more
26%

Heracles at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Heracles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: Heracles 0–5 Waalwijk

Waalwijk beat Heracles 5-0 in Eredivisie on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Erve Asito in Almelo.