Heracles 1–2 Groningen: Result & Stats | Eredivisie

Heracles

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Groningen

T. van Gilst 17'

T. Land 56'

D. van der Werff 3'

5/17/2026

Eredivisie · Round 34Asito Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Heracles43%

×Draw24%

Groningen33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HeraclesExpected goals in this matchGroningen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.37

Heracles

1.61

Groningen

1.37

Heracles creates 18% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 27 away

1.52

creates per match

1.28

1.46

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Heracles

1.52

Groningen

1.28

allows per match

Heracles

1.46

Groningen

1.70

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

Heracles-0.02on par

Groningen-0.43scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heracles ↓

Groningen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Heracles or draw

67%

Heracles or Groningen

76%

Draw or Groningen

57%

Winning margin

Heracles wins by 2+

22%

Groningen wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Heracles 1+ goals

80%

Heracles 2+ goals

48%

Heracles 3+ goals

22%

Groningen 1+ goals

75%

Groningen 2+ goals

40%

Groningen 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Heracles (draw refunded)

57%

Groningen (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heracles at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.46 · 22 matches

Groningen away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.70 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heracles attack 1.52 + Groningen defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.61

Groningen attack 1.28 + Heracles defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Heracles scores more

43%

level

24%

Groningen scores more

33%

Heracles at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Heracles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

73

W. Ould Chikh

Heracles · M

8.5

Match Events

3'

D. van der Werff

17'

T. van Gilst↳ M. Benita

56'

T. Land↳ M. Rente

61'

T. Hernes← D. van der Werff

74'

R. Mendes← T. Land

75'

E. Ahlstrand← M. Engels

76'

R. Bozinovski← T. Bruns

76'

T. Hamamioglu← W. Ould Chikh

85'

J. Wijnreder← M. Benita

87'

Jan Žambůrek

88'

S. Blokhuis← J. Zamburek

89'

W. Prins← Y. Taha

89'

J. Dillema← T. van Bergen

90'

Travis Hernes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HeraclesGroningen

Overview

53%Possession47%

11Total Shots16

0.64Expected Goals (xG)1.17

9Corners5

8Fouls5

Shots

11Total Shots16

2On Target5

7Off Target8

2Blocked3

10Inside Box10

1Outside Box6

Passing

53%Possession47%

392Total Passes354

301Accurate Passes269

77%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

-0.93Goals Prevented-0.93

Discipline

8Fouls5

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1