Heracles 4–2 GO Ahead Eagles: Result & Stats

Heracles

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

GO Ahead Eagles

2/8/2025

Eredivisie · Round 22Asito Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Heracles46%

×Draw24%

GO Ahead Eagles30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HeraclesExpected goals in this matchGO Ahead Eagles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.35

Heracles

1.71

GO Ahead Eagles

1.35

Heracles creates 27% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 88 away

1.73

creates per match

1.07

1.62

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Heracles

1.73

GO Ahead Eagles

1.07

allows per match

Heracles

1.62

GO Ahead Eagles

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heracles+0.00on par

GO Ahead Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heracles ↓

GO Ahead Eagles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Heracles or draw

70%

Heracles or GO Ahead Eagles

76%

Draw or GO Ahead Eagles

54%

Winning margin

Heracles wins by 2+

24%

GO Ahead Eagles wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Heracles 1+ goals

82%

Heracles 2+ goals

51%

Heracles 3+ goals

24%

GO Ahead Eagles 1+ goals

74%

GO Ahead Eagles 2+ goals

39%

GO Ahead Eagles 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Heracles (draw refunded)

60%

GO Ahead Eagles (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heracles at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.62 · 117 matches

GO Ahead Eagles away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.70 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heracles attack 1.73 + GO Ahead Eagles defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.71

GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.07 + Heracles defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Heracles scores more

46%

level

24%

GO Ahead Eagles scores more

30%

Heracles at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Heracles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff