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Hennef 05 vs Friesdorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Hennef 05
Hennef 05
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Friesdorf
Friesdorf
10/30/2022Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 11Stadion im Sportzentrum Hennef

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Hennef 0555%
×Draw21%
Friesdorf24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hennef 05
2.15
Friesdorf
1.38

Hennef 05 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 36 away

creates per match

Hennef 05
1.79
Friesdorf
1.36

allows per match

Hennef 05
1.39
Friesdorf
2.50

finishing

Hennef 05+0.00on par
Friesdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hennef 05 ↓

Friesdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Hennef 05 or draw
76%
Hennef 05 or Friesdorf
79%
Draw or Friesdorf
45%

Winning margin

Hennef 05 wins by 2+
33%
Friesdorf wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hennef 05 1+ goals
88%
Hennef 05 2+ goals
63%
Hennef 05 3+ goals
36%
Friesdorf 1+ goals
75%
Friesdorf 2+ goals
40%
Friesdorf 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hennef 05 (draw refunded)
69%
Friesdorf (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hennef 05 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.39 · 80 matches

Friesdorf away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hennef 05 attack 1.79 + Friesdorf defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.15

Friesdorf attack 1.36 + Hennef 05 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Hennef 05 scores more
55%
level
21%
Friesdorf scores more
24%

Hennef 05 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Hennef 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Hennef 05 2–0 Friesdorf

Hennef 05 beat Friesdorf 2-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion im Sportzentrum Hennef in Hennef.