Hennef 05 vs BCV Glesch / Paffendorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 44+ matches
Hennef 0548%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf29%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Hennef 05 creates 32% more chances
Season form · 80 home / 44 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over65
- Under35
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes65
- No35
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Hennef 05 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Hennef 05 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.39 · 80 matches
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 44 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Hennef 05 attack 1.79 + BCV Glesch / Paffendorf defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.90
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf attack 1.50 + Hennef 05 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Hennef 05 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Hennef 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Hennef 05
Freialdenhoven
Hürth
Alfter
VfL Vichttal
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
Pesch
Düren Merzenich
FrechenBCV Glesch / Paffendorf
Siegburger SV
SV Breinig
Fortuna Köln II
Eilendorf
Deutz
Wesseling-Urfeld
FriesdorfIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Hennef 05 host BCV Glesch / Paffendorf on Sunday, 12 May 2024 at 13:00. The match is part of the Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020/2021 season.
Hennef 05 face BCV Glesch / Paffendorf (Oberliga - Mittelrhein)
Oberliga - Mittelrhein returns with Hennef 05 hosting BCV Glesch / Paffendorf. Match starts May 12, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Hennef 05 host BCV Glesch / Paffendorf at Stadion im Sportzentrum Hennef.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.