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Hennef 05 U19 vs Wehen Wiesbaden U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Hennef 05 U19
Hennef 05 U19
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Wehen Wiesbaden U19
Wehen Wiesbaden U19
10/26/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 10Stadion im Sportzentrum Hennef

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hennef 05 U1934%
×Draw21%
Wehen Wiesbaden U1944%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hennef 05 U19
1.78
Wehen Wiesbaden U19
2.04

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 28 away

creates per match

Hennef 05 U19
1.31
Wehen Wiesbaden U19
1.93

allows per match

Hennef 05 U19
2.15
Wehen Wiesbaden U19
2.25

finishing

Hennef 05 U19+0.00on par
Wehen Wiesbaden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hennef 05 U19 ↓

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Hennef 05 U19 or draw
56%
Hennef 05 U19 or Wehen Wiesbaden U19
79%
Draw or Wehen Wiesbaden U19
66%

Winning margin

Hennef 05 U19 wins by 2+
17%
Wehen Wiesbaden U19 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Hennef 05 U19 1+ goals
83%
Hennef 05 U19 2+ goals
53%
Hennef 05 U19 3+ goals
26%
Wehen Wiesbaden U19 1+ goals
87%
Wehen Wiesbaden U19 2+ goals
60%
Wehen Wiesbaden U19 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Hennef 05 U19 (draw refunded)
44%
Wehen Wiesbaden U19 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hennef 05 U19 at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 away — creates 1.93, concedes 2.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hennef 05 U19 attack 1.31 + Wehen Wiesbaden U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.78

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 attack 1.93 + Hennef 05 U19 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hennef 05 U19 scores more
34%
level
21%
Wehen Wiesbaden U19 scores more
44%

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wehen Wiesbaden U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hennef 05 U19 vs Wehen Wiesbaden U19

Hennef 05 U19 beat Wehen Wiesbaden U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion im Sportzentrum Hennef in Hennef.