Hennef 05 U19 0–0 Rot-Weiss Essen U19

Hennef 05 U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

4/5/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 9Stadion im Sportzentrum Hennef

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hennef 05 U1945%

×Draw22%

Rot-Weiss Essen U1932%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hennef 05 U19Expected goals in this matchRot-Weiss Essen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.55

Hennef 05 U19

1.87

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.55

Hennef 05 U19 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 54 away

1.31

creates per match

0.96

2.15

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Hennef 05 U19

1.31

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

0.96

allows per match

Hennef 05 U19

2.15

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hennef 05 U19+0.00on par

Rot-Weiss Essen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hennef 05 U19 ↓

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Hennef 05 U19 or draw

68%

Hennef 05 U19 or Rot-Weiss Essen U19

78%

Draw or Rot-Weiss Essen U19

55%

Winning margin

Hennef 05 U19 wins by 2+

25%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hennef 05 U19 1+ goals

85%

Hennef 05 U19 2+ goals

56%

Hennef 05 U19 3+ goals

29%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1+ goals

79%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2+ goals

46%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Hennef 05 U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hennef 05 U19 at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.43 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hennef 05 U19 attack 1.31 + Rot-Weiss Essen U19 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.87

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 attack 0.96 + Hennef 05 U19 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hennef 05 U19 scores more

45%

level

22%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 scores more

32%

Hennef 05 U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hennef 05 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

M. Barry← P. Rogasik

57'

B. Berzen← Y. Friessner Montas

57'

S. Gawryluk← K. Kaya

62'

N. Kunz← K. Cornelius

62'

S. Delkic← H. Suguro

73'

S. Music← A. Rznic

73'

B. Charkaoui← G. Youbi

73'

S. Calik← Z. Elhankouri

81'

D. Nduchekwe← K. Becher

81'

S. Pietrek← A. Bouakran

Hennef

Rot-Weiss

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Lunga

62'▲N. Kunz←▼K. Cornelius

62'▲S. Delkic←▼H. Suguro

73'▲S. Music←▼A. Rznic

81'▲D. Nduchekwe←▼K. Becher

81'▲S. Pietrek←▼A. Bouakran

Hennef 05 U19 substitutes

KunzDelkicMusicNduchekwePietrekBouakranHellwig

Manager: S. Hohenberg

31'▲M. Barry←▼P. Rogasik

57'▲B. Berzen←▼Y. Friessner Montas

57'▲S. Gawryluk←▼K. Kaya

73'▲B. Charkaoui←▼G. Youbi

73'▲S. Calik←▼Z. Elhankouri

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 substitutes

BarryBerzenGawrylukCharkaouiCalikDzhelilovGerres