Hennef 05 U19 0–1 MSV Duisburg U19: Result & Stats

Hennef 05 U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

MSV Duisburg U19

M. Berrahou 78'

4/12/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 10Stadion im Sportzentrum Hennef

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hennef 05 U1935%

×Draw23%

MSV Duisburg U1942%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hennef 05 U19Expected goals in this matchMSV Duisburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.77

Hennef 05 U19

1.59

MSV Duisburg U19

1.77

MSV Duisburg U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 68 away

1.31

creates per match

1.40

2.15

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Hennef 05 U19

1.31

MSV Duisburg U19

1.40

allows per match

Hennef 05 U19

2.15

MSV Duisburg U19

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hennef 05 U19+0.00on par

MSV Duisburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hennef 05 U19 ↓

MSV Duisburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Hennef 05 U19 or draw

58%

Hennef 05 U19 or MSV Duisburg U19

77%

Draw or MSV Duisburg U19

65%

Winning margin

Hennef 05 U19 wins by 2+

17%

MSV Duisburg U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Hennef 05 U19 1+ goals

80%

Hennef 05 U19 2+ goals

47%

Hennef 05 U19 3+ goals

21%

MSV Duisburg U19 1+ goals

83%

MSV Duisburg U19 2+ goals

53%

MSV Duisburg U19 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Hennef 05 U19 (draw refunded)

45%

MSV Duisburg U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hennef 05 U19 at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

MSV Duisburg U19 away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.88 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hennef 05 U19 attack 1.31 + MSV Duisburg U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.59

MSV Duisburg U19 attack 1.40 + Hennef 05 U19 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hennef 05 U19 scores more

35%

level

23%

MSV Duisburg U19 scores more

42%

MSV Duisburg U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "MSV Duisburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

N. Kunz← H. Suguro

46'

S. Music← K. Cornelius

55'

M. Berrahou← Y. Scholl

67'

A. Bouakran← S. Pietrek

69'

E. Moussa← L. Halfes Meis

75'

D. Nduchekwe← A. Rznic

77'

S. Barnes← L. Gashi

78'

M. Berrahou

85'

S. Delkic← J. Fuhrmann

85'

M. Yıldız← K. Becher

Hennef

MSV

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Lunga

46'▲N. Kunz←▼H. Suguro

46'▲S. Music←▼K. Cornelius

67'▲A. Bouakran←▼S. Pietrek

75'▲D. Nduchekwe←▼A. Rznic

85'▲S. Delkic←▼J. Fuhrmann

85'▲M. Yıldız←▼K. Becher

Hennef 05 U19 substitutes

KunzMusicBouakranNduchekweDelkicYıldızHellwig

Manager: M. Jahn

55'▲M. Berrahou←▼Y. Scholl

69'▲E. Moussa←▼L. Halfes Meis

77'▲S. Barnes←▼L. Gashi

MSV Duisburg U19 substitutes

BerrahouMoussaBarnesNikolićFrederikTomljanovićMykhailenko

U19 Bundesliga: Hennef 05 U19 0–1 MSV Duisburg U19

MSV Duisburg U19 beat Hennef 05 U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on April 12, 2025.

Goals: M. Berrahou (78').

The match was played at Stadion im Sportzentrum Hennef in Hennef.

Hennef 05 U19 vs MSV Duisburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Hennef 05 U19 0–1 MSV Duisburg U19