Hennef 05 U19 0–7 Borussia M'bach U19

Hennef 05 U19

FT

0 – 7

HT: 0 – 3

Borussia M'bach U19

Y. Dasbach 87'

F. Fleck 70'

Y. Michaelis 64' (pen)

K. Sauck 60'

S. Ketola 35', 19'

L. Wörsdörfer 17'

8/3/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 1Stadion im Sportzentrum Hennef

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hennef 05 U1923%

×Draw20%

Borussia M'bach U1957%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hennef 05 U19Expected goals in this matchBorussia M'bach U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

2.25

Hennef 05 U19

1.39

Borussia M'bach U19

2.25

Borussia M'bach U19 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 72 away

1.31

creates per match

2.35

2.15

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Hennef 05 U19

1.31

Borussia M'bach U19

2.35

allows per match

Hennef 05 U19

2.15

Borussia M'bach U19

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hennef 05 U19+0.00on par

Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hennef 05 U19 ↓

Borussia M'bach U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Hennef 05 U19 or draw

43%

Hennef 05 U19 or Borussia M'bach U19

80%

Draw or Borussia M'bach U19

77%

Winning margin

Hennef 05 U19 wins by 2+

10%

Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Hennef 05 U19 1+ goals

75%

Hennef 05 U19 2+ goals

40%

Hennef 05 U19 3+ goals

16%

Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals

89%

Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals

65%

Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Hennef 05 U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hennef 05 U19 at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

Borussia M'bach U19 away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hennef 05 U19 attack 1.31 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.39

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.35 + Hennef 05 U19 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hennef 05 U19 scores more

23%

level

20%

Borussia M'bach U19 scores more

57%

Borussia M'bach U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Borussia M'bach U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

L. Wörsdörfer

19'

S. Ketola

35'

S. Ketola

36'

B. Silik← D. Nduchekwe

46'

A. Belousov← S. Delkic

46'

F. Goutzidis← K. Cornelius

56'

S. Music← N. Mofa

60'

K. Sauck

61'

C. Beyersdorf← D. Berko

61'

Y. Michaelis← S. Ketola

64'

Y. MichaelisPenalty

67'

J. Deumi Nappi← K. Sauck

67'

T. Koukkumäki← F. Opoku Mensah

70'

F. Fleck

75'

A. Grimm← J. Grauer

75'

N. Kunz← A. Bouakran

79'

H. Onur← F. Fleck

79'

E. Khadraoui← E. Vali Fard

87'

Y. Dasbach

Hennef

Borussia

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Sauck

Swider

⚽

▼

Fleck

⚽

Wörsdörfe

▼

Berko

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Lunga

36'▲B. Silik←▼D. Nduchekwe

46'▲A. Belousov←▼S. Delkic

46'▲F. Goutzidis←▼K. Cornelius

56'▲S. Music←▼N. Mofa

75'▲A. Grimm←▼J. Grauer

75'▲N. Kunz←▼A. Bouakran

Hennef 05 U19 substitutes

SilikBelousovGoutzidisMusicGrimmKunzMüller

Manager: O. Kirch

61'▲C. Beyersdorf←▼D. Berko

61'▲Y. Michaelis←▼S. Ketola

67'▲J. Deumi Nappi←▼K. Sauck

67'▲T. Koukkumäki←▼F. Opoku Mensah

79'▲H. Onur←▼F. Fleck

79'▲E. Khadraoui←▼E. Vali Fard

Borussia M'bach U19 substitutes

BeyersdorfMichaelisNappiKoukkumäkiOnurKhadraouiGutaj