Hennef 05 U19 1–1 Bayer Leverkusen U19

Hennef 05 U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bayer Leverkusen U19

A. Rznic 24'

J. Berghoff 56'

12/7/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 14Stadion im Sportzentrum Hennef

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hennef 05 U1923%

×Draw21%

Bayer Leverkusen U1957%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hennef 05 U19Expected goals in this matchBayer Leverkusen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

2.17

Hennef 05 U19

1.31

Bayer Leverkusen U19

2.17

Bayer Leverkusen U19 creates 66% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 64 away

1.31

creates per match

2.20

2.15

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Hennef 05 U19

1.31

Bayer Leverkusen U19

2.20

allows per match

Hennef 05 U19

2.15

Bayer Leverkusen U19

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hennef 05 U19+0.00on par

Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hennef 05 U19 ↓

Bayer Leverkusen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Hennef 05 U19 or draw

43%

Hennef 05 U19 or Bayer Leverkusen U19

79%

Draw or Bayer Leverkusen U19

77%

Winning margin

Hennef 05 U19 wins by 2+

9%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Hennef 05 U19 1+ goals

73%

Hennef 05 U19 2+ goals

38%

Hennef 05 U19 3+ goals

14%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals

89%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals

64%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Hennef 05 U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hennef 05 U19 at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

Bayer Leverkusen U19 away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hennef 05 U19 attack 1.31 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 2.20 + Hennef 05 U19 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hennef 05 U19 scores more

23%

level

21%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more

57%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

A. Rznic

56'

J. Berghoff

61'

N. Kunz← A. Ćorić

61'

N. Mofa← L. Dang

61'

B. Ermeç← I. Bakotaken

61'

H. Koc← T. Fernandes

69'

K. Becher← C. Catak

69'

M. Garcia← S. Music

82'

E. Datené← M. Đedović

86'

D. Nduchekwe← J. Fuhrmann

86'

S. Pietrek← K. Cornelius

Hennef

Bayer

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Lunga

61'▲N. Kunz←▼A. Ćorić

61'▲N. Mofa←▼L. Dang

69'▲K. Becher←▼C. Catak

69'▲M. Garcia←▼S. Music

86'▲D. Nduchekwe←▼J. Fuhrmann

86'▲S. Pietrek←▼K. Cornelius

Hennef 05 U19 substitutes

KunzMofaBecherGarciaNduchekwePietrekHellwig

Manager: Sergi Runge

61'▲B. Ermeç←▼I. Bakotaken

61'▲H. Koc←▼T. Fernandes

82'▲E. Datené←▼M. Đedović

Bayer Leverkusen U19 substitutes

ErmeçKocDatenéHachenbergPetrenkoBrüss