Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 2–0 Vasas Femina W

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

FT

2 – 0

Vasas Femina W

5/15/2022

Liga 1 Feminin · Championship Round - 8Stadionul Heniu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W82%

×Draw11%

Vasas Femina W7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului WExpected goals in this matchVasas Femina W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.62

1.07

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

3.62

Vasas Femina W

1.07

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W creates 238% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 58 away

4.00

creates per match

1.34

0.80

allows per match

3.24

creates per match

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

4.00

Vasas Femina W

1.34

allows per match

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

0.80

Vasas Femina W

3.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W+0.00on par

Vasas Femina W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W ↓

Vasas Femina W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–18%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W or draw

93%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W or Vasas Femina W

89%

Draw or Vasas Femina W

18%

Winning margin

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W wins by 2+

65%

Vasas Femina W wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 1+ goals

97%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 2+ goals

87%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 3+ goals

68%

Vasas Femina W 1+ goals

66%

Vasas Femina W 2+ goals

29%

Vasas Femina W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W (draw refunded)

92%

Vasas Femina W (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Vasas Femina W away — creates 1.34, concedes 3.24 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W attack 4.00 + Vasas Femina W defence 3.24 → ÷2 → 3.62

Vasas Femina W attack 1.34 + Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W scores more

82%

level

11%

Vasas Femina W scores more

7%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff