Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 4–0 SSU Poli Timişoara W

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

FT

4 – 0

SSU Poli Timişoara W

4/23/2022

Liga 1 Feminin · Championship Round - 4Stadionul Heniu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W62%

×Draw17%

SSU Poli Timişoara W20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului WExpected goals in this matchSSU Poli Timişoara W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.83

1.60

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

2.83

SSU Poli Timişoara W

1.60

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W creates 77% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 46 away

4.00

creates per match

2.39

0.80

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

4.00

SSU Poli Timişoara W

2.39

allows per match

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

0.80

SSU Poli Timişoara W

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W+0.00on par

SSU Poli Timişoara W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W ↓

SSU Poli Timişoara W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W or draw

80%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W or SSU Poli Timişoara W

83%

Draw or SSU Poli Timişoara W

38%

Winning margin

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W wins by 2+

42%

SSU Poli Timişoara W wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 1+ goals

94%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 2+ goals

77%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 3+ goals

53%

SSU Poli Timişoara W 1+ goals

80%

SSU Poli Timişoara W 2+ goals

47%

SSU Poli Timişoara W 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W (draw refunded)

75%

SSU Poli Timişoara W (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

SSU Poli Timişoara W away — creates 2.39, concedes 1.67 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W attack 4.00 + SSU Poli Timişoara W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.83

SSU Poli Timişoara W attack 2.39 + Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W scores more

62%

level

17%

SSU Poli Timişoara W scores more

20%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff