Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 5–0 FF Baia Mare W

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

FT

5 – 0

FF Baia Mare W

10/3/2021

Liga 1 Feminin · Round 6Stadionul Heniu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W84%

×Draw10%

FF Baia Mare W6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului WExpected goals in this matchFF Baia Mare W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.79

1.03

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

3.79

FF Baia Mare W

1.03

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W creates 268% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 31 away

4.00

creates per match

1.26

0.80

allows per match

3.58

creates per match

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

4.00

FF Baia Mare W

1.26

allows per match

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

0.80

FF Baia Mare W

3.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W+0.00on par

FF Baia Mare W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W ↓

FF Baia Mare W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–13%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–18%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

68%32%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W or draw

94%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W or FF Baia Mare W

90%

Draw or FF Baia Mare W

16%

Winning margin

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W wins by 2+

68%

FF Baia Mare W wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 1+ goals

98%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 2+ goals

88%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 3+ goals

70%

FF Baia Mare W 1+ goals

64%

FF Baia Mare W 2+ goals

28%

FF Baia Mare W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W (draw refunded)

93%

FF Baia Mare W (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

FF Baia Mare W away — creates 1.26, concedes 3.58 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W attack 4.00 + FF Baia Mare W defence 3.58 → ÷2 → 3.79

FF Baia Mare W attack 1.26 + Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W scores more

84%

level

10%

FF Baia Mare W scores more

6%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff