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Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W vs Banat Girls W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
FT
6 – 0
Banat Girls W
Banat Girls W
9/5/2021Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 2Stadionul Heniu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W80%
×Draw12%
Banat Girls W8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
3.38
Banat Girls W
1.05

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W creates 222% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 43 away

creates per match

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
4.00
Banat Girls W
1.30

allows per match

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
0.80
Banat Girls W
2.77

finishing

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W+0.00on par
Banat Girls W+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W ↓

Banat Girls W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W or draw
92%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W or Banat Girls W
88%
Draw or Banat Girls W
20%

Winning margin

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W wins by 2+
62%
Banat Girls W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 1+ goals
96%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 2+ goals
84%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 3+ goals
64%
Banat Girls W 1+ goals
65%
Banat Girls W 2+ goals
28%
Banat Girls W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W (draw refunded)
91%
Banat Girls W (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Banat Girls W away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.77 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W attack 4.00 + Banat Girls W defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 3.38

Banat Girls W attack 1.30 + Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W scores more
80%
level
12%
Banat Girls W scores more
8%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 6–0 Banat Girls W

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W beat Banat Girls W 6-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on September 5, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Heniu in Prundu Bârgăului.