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Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W vs Arad W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
FT
2 – 0
Arad W
Arad W
9/26/2021Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 4Stadionul Heniu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W67%
×Draw16%
Arad W17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
3.03
Arad W
1.50

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W creates 102% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 32 away

creates per match

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
4.00
Arad W
2.19

allows per match

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
0.80
Arad W
2.06

finishing

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W+0.00on par
Arad W+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W ↓

Arad W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W or draw
83%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W or Arad W
84%
Draw or Arad W
33%

Winning margin

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W wins by 2+
48%
Arad W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 1+ goals
95%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 2+ goals
80%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 3+ goals
57%
Arad W 1+ goals
78%
Arad W 2+ goals
44%
Arad W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W (draw refunded)
80%
Arad W (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Arad W away — creates 2.19, concedes 2.06 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W attack 4.00 + Arad W defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 3.03

Arad W attack 2.19 + Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W scores more
67%
level
16%
Arad W scores more
17%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W vs Arad W

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W beat Arad W 2-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Heniu in Prundu Bârgăului.