Henan Jianye 4–0 Shenyang Urban: Result & Stats

Henan Jianye

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Shenyang Urban

Zhong Yihao 79'

Gustavo 53'

Bruno Nazario 20'

Lucas Maia 2'

5/1/2026

Super League · Round 9Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Henan Jianye58%

×Draw21%

Shenyang Urban21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Henan JianyeExpected goals in this matchShenyang Urban

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

1.13

Henan Jianye

2.03

Shenyang Urban

1.13

Henan Jianye creates 80% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 6 away

2.11

creates per match

1.19

1.06

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Henan Jianye

2.11

Shenyang Urban

1.19

allows per match

Henan Jianye

1.06

Shenyang Urban

1.95

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

Henan Jianye+0.17scores more

Shenyang Urban-0.36scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Henan Jianye ↓

Shenyang Urban →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Henan Jianye or draw

79%

Henan Jianye or Shenyang Urban

79%

Draw or Shenyang Urban

42%

Winning margin

Henan Jianye wins by 2+

35%

Shenyang Urban wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Henan Jianye 1+ goals

87%

Henan Jianye 2+ goals

60%

Henan Jianye 3+ goals

33%

Shenyang Urban 1+ goals

68%

Shenyang Urban 2+ goals

31%

Shenyang Urban 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Henan Jianye (draw refunded)

74%

Shenyang Urban (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Henan Jianye at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Shenyang Urban away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.95 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Henan Jianye attack 2.11 + Shenyang Urban defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.03

Shenyang Urban attack 1.19 + Henan Jianye defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Henan Jianye scores more

58%

level

21%

Shenyang Urban scores more

21%

Henan Jianye at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Henan Jianye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Wang Shangyuan

Henan Jianye · M

8.2

Match Events

2'

Lucas Maia↳ Gustavo

18'

Jeffinho

20'

Bruno Nazario↳ Huang Ruifeng

46'

P. Vagic← Yan Dinghao

46'

Chen Binbin← Xu Dong

52'

Tian Ziyi← Yuan Mincheng

53'

Gustavo↳ Wang Shangyuan

55'

Huang Ruifeng

56'

Haliq Ablahan← He Chao

74'

O. Gerbig← Bruno Nazario

74'

Zheng Dalun← A. Abudulam

75'

75'

76'

79'

85'

85'

Yang Kuo← Wang Shangyuan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HenanShenyang

Overview

46%Possession54%

10Total Shots8

1.01Expected Goals (xG)0.72

4Corners4

14Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots8

4On Target0

6Off Target5

0Blocked3

6Inside Box5

4Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

373Total Passes437

311Accurate Passes361

83%Pass Accuracy83%

Discipline

14Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

5Offsides1