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Henan Jianye vs Meizhou Kejia — Super League 2026

Henan Jianye
Henan Jianye
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Meizhou Kejia
Meizhou Kejia
3/9/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 2Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Henan Jianye53%
×Draw24%
Meizhou Kejia23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Henan Jianye
1.75
Meizhou Kejia
1.07

Henan Jianye creates 64% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 62 away

creates per match

Henan Jianye
1.51
Meizhou Kejia
0.94

allows per match

Henan Jianye
1.21
Meizhou Kejia
2.00

finishing

Henan Jianye+0.00on par
Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Henan Jianye ↓

Meizhou Kejia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Henan Jianye or draw
77%
Henan Jianye or Meizhou Kejia
76%
Draw or Meizhou Kejia
47%

Winning margin

Henan Jianye wins by 2+
29%
Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Henan Jianye 1+ goals
83%
Henan Jianye 2+ goals
52%
Henan Jianye 3+ goals
25%
Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals
66%
Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals
29%
Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Henan Jianye (draw refunded)
70%
Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Henan Jianye at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.21 · 121 matches

Meizhou Kejia away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.00 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Henan Jianye attack 1.51 + Meizhou Kejia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Meizhou Kejia attack 0.94 + Henan Jianye defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Henan Jianye scores more
53%
level
24%
Meizhou Kejia scores more
23%

Henan Jianye at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Henan Jianye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Henan Jianye 2–2 Meizhou Kejia

Henan Jianye and Meizhou Kejia drew 2-2 in Super League on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Zhengzhou.