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Henan Jianye vs Jiangsu Suning — Super League 2018

Henan Jianye
Henan Jianye
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Jiangsu Suning
Jiangsu Suning
4/27/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 7Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Henan Jianye39%
×Draw25%
Jiangsu Suning35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Henan Jianye
1.47
Jiangsu Suning
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 120 home / 39 away

creates per match

Henan Jianye
1.48
Jiangsu Suning
1.54

allows per match

Henan Jianye
1.22
Jiangsu Suning
1.46

finishing

Henan Jianye+0.00on par
Jiangsu Suning+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Henan Jianye ↓

Jiangsu Suning →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Henan Jianye or draw
65%
Henan Jianye or Jiangsu Suning
75%
Draw or Jiangsu Suning
61%

Winning margin

Henan Jianye wins by 2+
19%
Jiangsu Suning wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Henan Jianye 1+ goals
77%
Henan Jianye 2+ goals
43%
Henan Jianye 3+ goals
18%
Jiangsu Suning 1+ goals
75%
Jiangsu Suning 2+ goals
40%
Jiangsu Suning 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Henan Jianye (draw refunded)
53%
Jiangsu Suning (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Henan Jianye at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.22 · 120 matches

Jiangsu Suning away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Henan Jianye attack 1.48 + Jiangsu Suning defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.47

Jiangsu Suning attack 1.54 + Henan Jianye defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Henan Jianye scores more
39%
level
25%
Jiangsu Suning scores more
35%

Henan Jianye at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Henan Jianye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Henan Jianye 2–1 Jiangsu Suning

Henan Jianye beat Jiangsu Suning 2-1 in Super League on April 27, 2019.

The match was played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Zhengzhou.