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Henan Jianye vs Hebei Zhongji — Super League 2018

Henan Jianye
Henan Jianye
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Hebei Zhongji
Hebei Zhongji
9/14/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 24Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Henan Jianye57%
×Draw22%
Hebei Zhongji21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Henan Jianye
1.91
Hebei Zhongji
1.08

Henan Jianye creates 77% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 67 away

creates per match

Henan Jianye
1.48
Hebei Zhongji
0.94

allows per match

Henan Jianye
1.22
Hebei Zhongji
2.34

finishing

Henan Jianye+0.00on par
Hebei Zhongji+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Henan Jianye ↓

Hebei Zhongji →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Henan Jianye or draw
79%
Henan Jianye or Hebei Zhongji
78%
Draw or Hebei Zhongji
43%

Winning margin

Henan Jianye wins by 2+
33%
Hebei Zhongji wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Henan Jianye 1+ goals
85%
Henan Jianye 2+ goals
57%
Henan Jianye 3+ goals
30%
Hebei Zhongji 1+ goals
66%
Hebei Zhongji 2+ goals
29%
Hebei Zhongji 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Henan Jianye (draw refunded)
73%
Hebei Zhongji (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Henan Jianye at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.22 · 120 matches

Hebei Zhongji away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.34 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Henan Jianye attack 1.48 + Hebei Zhongji defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.91

Hebei Zhongji attack 0.94 + Henan Jianye defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Henan Jianye scores more
57%
level
22%
Hebei Zhongji scores more
21%

Henan Jianye at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Henan Jianye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Henan Jianye 4–1 Hebei Zhongji

Henan Jianye beat Hebei Zhongji 4-1 in Super League on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Zhengzhou.