Henan Jianye 1–0 Chongqing Lifan: Result & Stats

Henan Jianye

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Chongqing Lifan

8/2/2021

Super League · Round 11Yuexiushan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Henan Jianye47%

×Draw24%

Chongqing Lifan29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Henan JianyeExpected goals in this matchChongqing Lifan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.23

Henan Jianye

1.63

Chongqing Lifan

1.23

Henan Jianye creates 33% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 50 away

1.48

creates per match

1.24

1.22

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Henan Jianye

1.48

Chongqing Lifan

1.24

allows per match

Henan Jianye

1.22

Chongqing Lifan

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Henan Jianye+0.00on par

Chongqing Lifan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Henan Jianye ↓

Chongqing Lifan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Henan Jianye or draw

71%

Henan Jianye or Chongqing Lifan

76%

Draw or Chongqing Lifan

53%

Winning margin

Henan Jianye wins by 2+

24%

Chongqing Lifan wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Henan Jianye 1+ goals

80%

Henan Jianye 2+ goals

48%

Henan Jianye 3+ goals

22%

Chongqing Lifan 1+ goals

71%

Chongqing Lifan 2+ goals

35%

Chongqing Lifan 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Henan Jianye (draw refunded)

62%

Chongqing Lifan (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Henan Jianye at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.22 · 120 matches

Chongqing Lifan away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.78 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Henan Jianye attack 1.48 + Chongqing Lifan defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.63

Chongqing Lifan attack 1.24 + Henan Jianye defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Henan Jianye scores more

47%

level

24%

Chongqing Lifan scores more

29%

Henan Jianye at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Henan Jianye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff