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Hemel Hempstead Town vs Salisbury — League #51 2026

Hemel Hempstead Town
Hemel Hempstead Town
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Salisbury
Salisbury
4/25/2026League #51League #51

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Hemel Hempstead Town47%
×Draw25%
Salisbury28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hemel Hempstead Town
1.58
Salisbury
1.18

Hemel Hempstead Town creates 34% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

creates per match

Hemel Hempstead Town
1.43
Salisbury
1.07

allows per match

Hemel Hempstead Town
1.29
Salisbury
1.73

finishing

Hemel Hempstead Town+0.00on par
Salisbury+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hemel Hempstead Town ↓

Salisbury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Hemel Hempstead Town or draw
72%
Hemel Hempstead Town or Salisbury
75%
Draw or Salisbury
53%

Winning margin

Hemel Hempstead Town wins by 2+
24%
Salisbury wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hemel Hempstead Town 1+ goals
79%
Hemel Hempstead Town 2+ goals
47%
Hemel Hempstead Town 3+ goals
21%
Salisbury 1+ goals
69%
Salisbury 2+ goals
33%
Salisbury 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hemel Hempstead Town (draw refunded)
62%
Salisbury (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hemel Hempstead Town at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Salisbury away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hemel Hempstead Town attack 1.43 + Salisbury defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.58

Salisbury attack 1.07 + Hemel Hempstead Town defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hemel Hempstead Town scores more
47%
level
25%
Salisbury scores more
28%

Hemel Hempstead Town at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hemel Hempstead Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hemel Hempstead Town vs Salisbury

Hemel Hempstead Town and Salisbury drew 1-1 in League #51 on April 25, 2026.