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Helsingborg vs Sandviken — Superettan 2026

Helsingborg
Helsingborg
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sandviken
Sandviken
W. Loeper 22'
W. I. Thellsson C. 90'
L. Tagesson 21'
4/5/2025SuperettanSuperettan · Round 2Olympia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Helsingborg43%
×Draw26%
Sandviken31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Helsingborg
1.42
Sandviken
1.15

Helsingborg creates 23% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Helsingborg
1.46
Sandviken
1.04

allows per match

Helsingborg
1.26
Sandviken
1.37

finishing

Helsingborg-0.71scores less
Sandviken+0.13scores more

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Helsingborg ↓

Sandviken →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Helsingborg or draw
69%
Helsingborg or Sandviken
74%
Draw or Sandviken
57%

Winning margin

Helsingborg wins by 2+
21%
Sandviken wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Helsingborg 1+ goals
76%
Helsingborg 2+ goals
41%
Helsingborg 3+ goals
17%
Sandviken 1+ goals
68%
Sandviken 2+ goals
32%
Sandviken 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Helsingborg (draw refunded)
59%
Sandviken (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Helsingborg at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.26 · 8 matches

Sandviken away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.37 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Helsingborg attack 1.46 + Sandviken defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.42

Sandviken attack 1.04 + Helsingborg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Helsingborg scores more
43%
level
26%
Sandviken scores more
31%

Helsingborg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Helsingborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
O. SjostrandSandvikenSandviken · M
8.0

Match Events

3'
Lukas Kjellnas
6'
Daniel Soderberg
21'
L. Tagesson↳ V. Backman
22'
W. Loeper↳ M. Gudmann
37'
Kim Kack Ofordu
45+4'
T. Gorefalt← M. Gudmann
45+4'
O. Samuelsson← L. Tagesson
62'
W. I. Thellsson C.← V. Backman
63'
F. Olsson← K. Kack Ofordu
67'
A. Akimey← O. Aga
73'
Johan Arvidsson
74'
M. Rasmussen← M. Svensson
75'
E. Gigovic← S. Asoma
76'
L. Vabo← J. Arvidsson
84'
C. Ljung← L. Kjellnas
85'
T. Parallangaj← M. Simba
85'
P. Carlsson← G. Thorn
90+1'
Wilhelm Nilsson
90'
W. I. Thellsson C.↳ O. Sjostrand

Possession

47%Helsingborg

Shots

8Helsingborg

Pass accuracy

50%Helsingborg

Statistics

HelsingborgSandviken
Overview
47%Possession53%
8Total Shots12
0.84Expected Goals (xG)1.28
5Corners9
9Fouls15
Shots
8Total Shots12
1On Target2
6Off Target7
1Blocked3
6Inside Box7
2Outside Box5
Passing
47%Possession53%
401Total Passes400
321Accurate Passes322
80%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
0Saves0
Discipline
9Fouls15
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Helsingborg vs Sandviken

Sandviken beat Helsingborg 2-1 in Superettan on April 5, 2025.

Goals: L. Tagesson (21'), W. Loeper (22'), W. I. Thellsson C. (90').

Sandviken controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Olympia in Helsingborg.