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Helsingborg vs IF Elfsborg — Allsvenskan 2018

Helsingborg
Helsingborg
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
IF Elfsborg
IF Elfsborg
6/22/2020AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 3Olympia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Helsingborg33%
×Draw27%
IF Elfsborg40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Helsingborg
1.16
IF Elfsborg
1.31

IF Elfsborg creates 13% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 126 away

creates per match

Helsingborg
0.87
IF Elfsborg
1.37

allows per match

Helsingborg
1.26
IF Elfsborg
1.44

finishing

Helsingborg+0.00on par
IF Elfsborg+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Helsingborg ↓

IF Elfsborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Helsingborg or draw
60%
Helsingborg or IF Elfsborg
73%
Draw or IF Elfsborg
67%

Winning margin

Helsingborg wins by 2+
13%
IF Elfsborg wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Helsingborg 1+ goals
69%
Helsingborg 2+ goals
32%
Helsingborg 3+ goals
11%
IF Elfsborg 1+ goals
73%
IF Elfsborg 2+ goals
38%
IF Elfsborg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Helsingborg (draw refunded)
45%
IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Helsingborg at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

IF Elfsborg away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.44 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Helsingborg attack 0.87 + IF Elfsborg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.16

IF Elfsborg attack 1.37 + Helsingborg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Helsingborg scores more
33%
level
27%
IF Elfsborg scores more
40%

IF Elfsborg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "IF Elfsborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Helsingborg 0–0 IF Elfsborg

Helsingborg and IF Elfsborg drew 0-0 in Allsvenskan on June 22, 2020.

The match was played at Olympia in Helsingborg.