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Helsingborg vs Eskilsminne — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Helsingborg
Helsingborg
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Eskilsminne
Eskilsminne
1/24/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Helsingborg60%
×Draw19%
Eskilsminne22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Helsingborg
2.54
Eskilsminne
1.50

Helsingborg creates 69% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

Helsingborg
2.27
Eskilsminne
2.00

allows per match

Helsingborg
1.00
Eskilsminne
2.80

finishing

Helsingborg+0.00on par
Eskilsminne+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Helsingborg ↓

Eskilsminne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Helsingborg or draw
78%
Helsingborg or Eskilsminne
81%
Draw or Eskilsminne
40%

Winning margin

Helsingborg wins by 2+
39%
Eskilsminne wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Helsingborg 1+ goals
92%
Helsingborg 2+ goals
72%
Helsingborg 3+ goals
46%
Eskilsminne 1+ goals
78%
Eskilsminne 2+ goals
44%
Eskilsminne 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Helsingborg (draw refunded)
73%
Eskilsminne (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Helsingborg at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Eskilsminne away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Helsingborg attack 2.27 + Eskilsminne defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.54

Eskilsminne attack 2.00 + Helsingborg defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Helsingborg scores more
60%
level
19%
Eskilsminne scores more
22%

Helsingborg at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Helsingborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Helsingborg 4–2 Eskilsminne

Helsingborg beat Eskilsminne 4-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 24, 2026.