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Helsingborg vs BK Hacken — Allsvenskan 2018

Helsingborg
Helsingborg
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
BK Hacken
BK Hacken
10/19/2020AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 24Olympia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Helsingborg31%
×Draw27%
BK Hacken41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Helsingborg
1.11
BK Hacken
1.32

BK Hacken creates 19% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 126 away

creates per match

Helsingborg
0.87
BK Hacken
1.39

allows per match

Helsingborg
1.26
BK Hacken
1.35

finishing

Helsingborg+0.00on par
BK Hacken+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Helsingborg ↓

BK Hacken →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Helsingborg or draw
59%
Helsingborg or BK Hacken
73%
Draw or BK Hacken
69%

Winning margin

Helsingborg wins by 2+
12%
BK Hacken wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Helsingborg 1+ goals
67%
Helsingborg 2+ goals
30%
Helsingborg 3+ goals
10%
BK Hacken 1+ goals
73%
BK Hacken 2+ goals
38%
BK Hacken 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Helsingborg (draw refunded)
43%
BK Hacken (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Helsingborg at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

BK Hacken away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.35 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Helsingborg attack 0.87 + BK Hacken defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.11

BK Hacken attack 1.39 + Helsingborg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Helsingborg scores more
31%
level
27%
BK Hacken scores more
41%

BK Hacken at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "BK Hacken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Helsingborg vs BK Hacken

Helsingborg and BK Hacken drew 0-0 in Allsvenskan on October 19, 2020.

The match was played at Olympia in Helsingborg.