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Helmond Sport vs Telstar — Eerste Divisie 2018

Helmond Sport
Helmond Sport
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Telstar
Telstar
4/5/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 33GS Staalwerken Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Helmond Sport42%
×Draw25%
Telstar33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Helmond Sport
1.54
Telstar
1.34

Helmond Sport creates 15% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 130 away

creates per match

Helmond Sport
1.39
Telstar
1.18

allows per match

Helmond Sport
1.51
Telstar
1.69

finishing

Helmond Sport+0.00on par
Telstar+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Helmond Sport ↓

Telstar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Helmond Sport or draw
67%
Helmond Sport or Telstar
75%
Draw or Telstar
58%

Winning margin

Helmond Sport wins by 2+
21%
Telstar wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Helmond Sport 1+ goals
79%
Helmond Sport 2+ goals
45%
Helmond Sport 3+ goals
20%
Telstar 1+ goals
74%
Telstar 2+ goals
39%
Telstar 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Helmond Sport (draw refunded)
56%
Telstar (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Helmond Sport at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.51 · 148 matches

Telstar away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.69 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Helmond Sport attack 1.39 + Telstar defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.54

Telstar attack 1.18 + Helmond Sport defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Helmond Sport scores more
42%
level
25%
Telstar scores more
33%

Helmond Sport at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Helmond Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Helmond Sport 2–2 Telstar

Helmond Sport and Telstar drew 2-2 in Eerste Divisie on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at GS Staalwerken Stadion in Helmond.